NBA Playoff Pick ‘Em: Oddsmakers overvaluing Warriors’ star energy vs. powerful Grizzlies

NBA Playoff Pick ‘Em: Oddsmakers overvaluing Warriors’ star energy vs. powerful Grizzlies

I overthought every little thing in Friday’s picks. The residence crew down 0-2 in a sequence is mostly profitable, and while you’re coping with the highest eight groups within the league, it is best to belief that. I bought too cute with it, and Philadelphia and Dallas made me pay. At least I hit each participant props. Shout out to Mikal Bridges and Danny Green.

Boston-Milwaukee has the makings of a basic see-saw sequence. These groups are so powerful, so defensively savvy and so evenly matched, I simply assume we’re going backwards and forwards for seven video games. Meanwhile, in “I Told You So” information, the Memphis Grizzlies proceed to show they’re a horrible matchup for the Golden State Warriors, however the books proceed to overvalue the Dubs.

The theme of Saturday night time’s picks: Trusting my intestine. Let’s get proper to it:

Overall report in opposition to the unfold: 16-17

Boston Celtics (+2, 105) at Milwaukee Bucks (-2, -125) – 3:30 p.m. ET / 12:30 p.m. PT

After Milwaukee threw a haymaker in Game 1, Boston adjusted and answered, big-time. The Celtics bought environment friendly performances from Jayson Tatum and Jalen Brown, with a bonus bench pop-off from Grant Williams (21 factors on 50/66/50 capturing). And they continued to restrict Bucks star Giannis Antetokounmpo’s effectivity.

Another motive I count on this to proceed to be a high-variance sequence is Milwaukee’s tendency to permit, even encourage, opponents’ three-point makes an attempt. That, mixed with Boston’s teamwide streakiness, simply has me feeling like I can’t actually use the earlier recreation to tell an excessive amount of in regards to the subsequent one.

You’d need to think about Antetokounmpo has two transcendent video games in him over the course of this sequence. The factor about having him in your crew is that the Bucks don’t essentially have to make a counter-adjustment to win Game 3. The Greek Freak is bodily dominant in a manner that solely Shaquille O’Neal and LeBron James have been in my lifetime. He is a human adjustment.

I believe Tatum and Brown come again to the imply slightly bit, and Antetokounmpo has a type of video games. I’ve bought the Bucks (-2) and I’ll take Giannis Antetokounmpo OVER 29.5 factors.

Memphis Grizzlies (+7, +240) at Golden State Warriors (-7, -300) – 8:30 p.m. ET / 5:30 p.m. PT

I’ve been saying this because the All-Star break. On Reddit, in my hoops group chats, to my girlfriend, who doesn’t care. The Warriors ought to hope to keep away from Memphis within the playoffs. Golden State’s strengths play into precisely what Memphis needs to do, and their finest lineups function three guards who merely haven’t any probability at guarding Ja Morant.

From what I noticed in Game 2, Steve Kerr and the Warriors workers have to make tactical changes on defence until they wish to see Super Saiyan Morant once more. For starters, possibly don’t surrender switches on decide and rolls so simply. The Dubs have to do no matter they’ll to get the ball out of Morant’s fingers. Double crew him, entice the excessive pick-and-roll, simply ship our bodies at him. Make him rush. And they should assault him relentlessly when Memphis is on defence. Run Morant by way of 10 screens per possession.

But anybody in Dub Nation will inform you that Coach Kerr is frustratingly sluggish to regulate. And he’s by no means preferred spamming the Stephen CurryDraymond Green excessive pick-and-roll, regardless of how deadly that motion is. The Warriors have additionally been detest to hunt particular matchups, preferring to let their lovely movement offence simply run because it all the time does. For so long as Kerr resists these changes, the Grizzlies have a tactical benefit.

I don’t assume these changes come till Game 4, because the Warriors in all probability really feel they need to be up 2-0, so why change something? I don’t know if they’ll pull off the win outright, however give me the Grizzlies (+7). These groups nearly all the time play shut video games, so getting factors in a really winnable recreation for Memphis is reassuring.

I’ll take Morant OVER 28.5 factors with Gary Payton II out indefinitely, and Andrew Wiggins OVER 5.5 rebounds. The Canadian is averaging over seven a recreation within the postseason and needs to be on Morant rather a lot on this one, which implies lots of time within the defensive paint to hit the glass.

The Sicko Same Game Parlay for Friday Night pays off at +1400

· Milwaukee Bucks -2.5 different level unfold

· Brook Lopez OVER 0.5 threes made

· Bobby Portis 10 or extra rebounds

· Giannis Antetokounmpo 30 or extra factors

· Jrue Holiday OVER 1.5 steals within the match.

As all the time, play secure and don’t chase.

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